RESUMO
This paper applies Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to understand the diverse behavior of municipal governments in Ecuador to find common elements that influence the well-being of citizens in the short and long term. Information gathering was conducted in two stages: in the first one, a group of 16 national experts was consulted to develop the initial FCM; in the second stage, local experts from 220 municipalities were interviewed to collect information on the general validity of initial FCMs and specific values given to concepts and relationships in their municipalities. Results show the importance of certain concepts for long-term municipal performance, such as the need for a competitive entrepreneurial sector, improving human resources in the municipality, and, particularly, having a competent mayor with leadership skills and a forward-looking vision that enables the development of municipal projects required to reach an efficient and equitable coverage of goods and services throughout the city. Through the application of genetic algorithms, the FCM was calibrated to ascertain the long-term dynamics of municipal development and the optimal values of the concepts that would optimize the attainment of the set objectives. The derived outcomes suggest the desirability of the maintenance of, in principle, unwanted structures like financial transfers from the central government and the need to exploit natural resources to attain urban development.
